The war is not yet over, but Ukraine has already lost | The Hill

The war is not over yet, but the outcome is already clear. Ukraine has lost.

It pains me to say this, of course. Ukraine has fought a just war against an unjust – even barbaric – aggressor. And the country has fought well. Indeed, not only have the Ukrainians put up a better defensive fight than was generally expected in the run-up to the war, but they have taken the fight to the enemy, even pushing the Russians back on several fronts.

But Ukraine has lost the war nonetheless.

Why do I say this? Because, at the end of the day, Russia will have imposed its will on Ukraine while Ukraine will have achieved almost none of the goals – other than survival – it is pursuing on the battlefield and at the negotiating table.

That Russia will end up imposing its will on Ukraine now seems beyond reasonable doubt. Despite suffering terrible casualties and embarrassing battlefield setbacks, Moscow has already forced Kyiv to concede that NATO membership, and probably European Union (EU) membership too, is a non-starter. The separatist enclaves in Donetsk and Luhansk are in no danger of reverting to Ukrainian control, and the only question in the south of the country is how much territory will be added to the Crimean lands pried from Kyiv’s control in 2014.

Ukraine, on the other hand, will likely achieve almost none of its goals. To be sure, Ukraine will continue to inflict losses on the Russian forces, preventing them from taking Kyiv and other major cities and pushing them back here and there in successful, if limited, counter-offensives. But Kyiv will not achieve its operational-level objectives of expelling the Russians from all the territory it has lost since Feb. 24. It will not win a decisive battlefield victory that will vanquish once and for all the Russian invaders.