很多料都看过，最主要的有两个。
1。石正丽在前后很多事情对不上，至少还有8个接近新冠病毒的序列，怀疑她主动被动说谎。看看将来石女士还会不会出国开会，新冠之前她很活跃的。
2。美国政府知道三个研究人员曾经得过类似新冠的病症，在世卫调查时要求拿到三人的原始材料，被拒绝了。同时，石女士也一再声明病毒所没有一人感染，好像还在这三人染病被揪出来之前。中国政府不肯溯源这三个人，让她说话信用打折扣，还有提前掩盖的意味。
Rhy 发表于 2021-06-06 01:14
"看看将来石女士还会不会出国开会，新冠之前她很活跃的。"
其实这个“会不会出国开会”的问题很重要。看疫苗的进展情况，如果疫情到今年秋冬的时候确实消退了，西方国家重新开始组织各种线下的国际会议了，可以看看那些以前在国际会议上很活跃的中国病毒学研究人员还能不能出国开会？
就我所知，已经有好些其他行业的国际会议安排在9月以后恢复在美国线下举办了。
我把最近一个月以来围绕新冠病毒溯源的主要事件按时间线总结了一下，欢迎大家评论补充
May 5: Former New York Times science reporter Nicholas Wade, writing in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, reviews the evidence and makes a strong case for the lab-leak theory. He focuses in particular on the furin cleavage site, which increases viral infectivity for human cells. His analysis yields this quote from David Baltimore, a virologist and former president of the California Institute of Technology: “When I first saw the furin cleavage site in the viral sequence, with its arginine codons, I said to my wife it was the smoking gun for the origin of the virus. These features make a powerful challenge to the idea of a natural origin for SARS2.”
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
May 7: James Freeman, Assistant editor, editorial page, The Wall Street Journal became the first reporter of a major news outlet challenging the intertwined relationship among China, Fauci and Origins of COVID
https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-fauci-and-the-origins-of-covid-11620419989
May 11: During a Senate hearing on the pandemic response, Paul alleged that the National Institutes of Health (NIH) had been sending funding to the Wuhan lab, which then "juiced up" a virus that was originally found in bats to create a super virus that can infect human cells. Paul pressed Fauci on the theory that the novel coronavirus was created in the Wuhan lab, and then somehow escaped, either because of an accident or because it was deliberately released.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/552857-rand-paul-clashes-with-fauci-over-coronavirus-origins
May 14: Eighteen prominent scientists publish a letter in the journal Science, saying a new investigation is needed because “theories of accidental release from a lab and zoonotic spillover both remain viable.” One signer is Ralph Baric, a virologist who worked closely with Shi.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/372/6543/694.1
May 17: Another former New York Times science reporter, Donald G. McNeil Jr., posts on Medium: “How I Learned to Stop Worrying And Love the Lab-Leak Theory.” He quotes W. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University — who had signed the March 2020 letter in Nature Medicine — as saying his mind had changed in light of new information.
May 23: WSJ published an exclusive news piece which reports three researchers from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology became sick enough in November 2019 that they sought hospital care, according to a previously undisclosed U.S. intelligence report that could add weight to growing calls for a fuller probe of whether the Covid-19 virus may have escaped from the laboratory.
May 24: Anthony Fauci, apparently “changed” his mind, admitted earlier this month that he is no longer convinced that the Covid-19 pandemic originated naturally.
Same day, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the 23rd commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), said the growing number of reports provide an increasing amount of circumstantial evidence supporting the theory that the virus could have escaped from a lab.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/24/politics/fauci-donald-trump-coronavirus/index.html
May 26: President Biden ordered the Intelligence Community to redouble their efforts to collect and analyze information that could bring us closer to a definitive conclusion, and to report back in 90 days.
Same day, The Editorial Board of WSJ endorsed the credibility of The Virus Lab Theory
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-virus-lab-theorys-new-credibility-11622066808
June 2: Uncovered Emails Show Fauci’s deep involvement in Gain of Function research
https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/20793561/leopold-nih-foia-anthony-fauci-emails.pdf
June 3: Vanity Fair published a nearly 12,000-word article by award-winning journalist Katherine Eban; it's much worth reading on the bottom line question of whether COVID-19 indeed stemmed from a lab leak.
Shang_Ri_La 发表于 2021-06-06 02:59
感谢总结，非常棒！
"Under scrutiny from governments including her own, with bizarre conspiracy theories and legitimate doubts swirling around her, she began lashing out at critics. “The 2019 novel coronavirus is a punishment from nature for humanity’s uncivilized habits,” she wrote in a February 2 post on WeChat, a popular social media app in China. “I, Shi Zhengli, guarantee on my life that it has nothing to do with our lab. May I offer some advice to those people who believe and spread bad media rumors: shut your dirty mouths.”"
石正丽以生命担保新冠病毒跟她的实验室没有关系，但是武毒所还有很多其他的实验室，所以这个声明并没有为武毒所撇清干系。
仔细读了全文，不觉得有任何证据指向实验室问题。就像现在还有人否认六十年代美国登月一样。
damulvv 发表于 2021-06-06 11:50
其实过几个月就能看出来了：等线下的学术交流恢复了以后，看看武毒所的科研人员是不是还能像以前那样出国参会。。。
因为他后来又拿了一笔大funding？
我也不知道 我只是和你一样的吃瓜群众 连blast都不高兴去做 起初只看到他删推 后来有人问他 他说是auto delete的
然后被揭穿auto delete这句话说谎了 （这有点小事现人品？）
再后来去看他已经直接关账户了
求内幕人士爆料
CleverBeaver 发表于 2021-06-06 23:57
Kristian G. Andersen不但退出了推特，连LinkedIn profile也删得干干净净。
但是他自己在Scripps的官网主页上的Twitter和LinkedIn的链接都还没来得及改。
拜托能否介绍一下链接？
noshock 发表于 2021-06-07 00:05
[url]https://andersen-lab.com/people/#kristian[/url]
On January 14, 2021, Daszak and 12 other international experts arrived in Wuhan to join 17 Chinese experts and an entourage of government minders. They spent two weeks of the monthlong mission quarantined in their hotel rooms. The remaining two-week inquiry was more propaganda than probe, complete with a visit to an exhibit extolling President Xi’s leadership. The team saw almost no raw data, only the Chinese government analysis of it.
They paid one visit to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where they met with Shi Zhengli, as recounted in an annex to the mission report. One obvious demand would have been access to the WIV’s database of some 22,000 virus samples and sequences, which had been taken offline. At an event convened by a London organization on March 10, Daszak was asked whether the group had made such a request. He said there was no need: Shi Zhengli had stated that the WIV took down the database due to hacking attempts during the pandemic. “Absolutely reasonable,” Daszak said. “And we did not ask to see the data…. As you know, a lot of this work has been conducted with EcoHealth Alliance…. We do basically know what’s in those databases. There is no evidence of viruses closer to SARS-CoV-2 than RaTG13 in those databases, simple as that.”
In fact, the database had been taken offline on September 12, 2019, three months before the official start of the pandemic, a detail uncovered by Gilles Demaneuf and two of his DRASTIC colleagues.
现在Daszak被披露出来是去年二月专家公开信的幕后推手，同时他上面这段关于武毒所数据库的回答也并没有说服力，这个事情是不是应该再跟进一下，让武毒所把这个数据库交出来呢？
美国人行动很快啊，Peter Daszak被人肉了
[url]https://peterdaszak.com/[/url]
当年中央电视台做的专题节目，介绍武毒所团队的工作：[url]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=96oAOzcM5vs[/url]
去年1月初的一篇文章，Peter Daszak的名字赫然在列：
自2019年12月30日武汉华南海鲜市场出现不明原因的肺炎疫情以来，武汉卫健委做出了快速的反应和信息公开。截至目前，已确诊41例感染新型冠状病毒肺炎患者，已造成1人死亡，7人重症。所有密切接触者 739 人，其中医务人员 419 人，均已接受医学观察，没有发现人传人的病例报告。
我国于2019年12月31日首次向世界卫生组织（WHO）报告了这些罕见病例。据中国中央电视台（CCTV）报道，实验室从一名病人身上分离出的病毒在电子显微镜下显示出冠状病毒典型的尖刺状表面。
截至2020年1月7日21时，中国科学家对该病毒进行了全基因组测序，并使用核酸检测方法共检出新型冠状病毒阳性结果14例。专家组认为，本次不明原因的病毒性肺炎病例的病原体初步判定为新型冠状病毒。
北京时间2020年1月9日，国际顶尖学术期刊 Science 杂志官网就此次肺炎疫情再次发表了科学报道，题为：Scientists urge China to quickly share data on virus linked to pneumonia outbreak（科学家敦促中国迅速分享与肺炎暴发有关的病毒数据）。
该报道称，世界各地的科学家们迫切的希望中国能尽快分享更多关于这种新病原体的信息，包括序列信息、该新病原体可能引起的疾病以及传播途径。
以下为 Science 报道的全文翻译。
生态健康联盟总裁Peter Daszak表示：“中国的病毒学家是世界上最优秀的病毒学家，他们的工作速度非常快，效率极高，他们掌握的信息比我们现在知道的要多得多，这次疫情是中国展示他们在21世纪的公共卫生和病毒学方面所做的努力的一个机会。”
虽然致病原和疾病之间的联系还有待证实，但许多科学家对这一发现表示称赞，他们说这是中国在病毒学方面实力的证明。但是他们敦促中国尽快分享更多关于这种新病原体的信息，包括该新病原体的序列信息、可能引起的疾病以及传播途径。
伊拉斯姆斯医学中心的病毒学家Marion Koopmans表示：“我认为他们真的应该共享序列数据，这样我们就能确保如果我们有来自这个地区的旅客，我们就能检测出这种病毒。”
另外，新华社今天确认了此次疫情调查的负责人是徐建国。尽管该机构没有透露他的具体工作单位，徐建国显然是在中国疾病预防控制中心的中国传染病预防控制所工作。徐建国告诉新华社，研究人员正在继续他们的工作，以确认冠状病毒是罪魁祸首。
世界卫生组织（WHO）驻中国代表Gauden Galea今天在一份新闻声明中写道：“在短时间内初步鉴定出一种新病毒是一项显著的成就，表明中国在处理新疫情方面的能力有所提高。”
世界各地的科学家都认同这种观点，但他们还想了解更多。香港大学病毒学家Malik Peiris表示，“应该祝贺中国研究人员迅速鉴定出病原体。现在他们与世卫组织和全球公共卫生界共享该新型病毒特异的诊断性RT-PCR 测试至关重要。”
生态健康联盟总裁Peter Daszak说：“我真正想看到的是有关流行病学和病理学的信息，这样我们就都可以确信：第一，这种冠状病毒是这次爆发的原因；第二，它被控制住了，他们已经能够追踪所有的潜在病例，以便进行隔离和检测。在我看来，如果我们得不到全部的信息，疫情就有进一步传播的风险。”
德国柏林大学Charite医院的Christian Drosten说：“中国的研究人员不必担心共享信息会妨碍这种新病毒在权威杂志上发表，没有任何杂志会因为这一序列被公开而拒绝发表其论文。”
新闻报道一直谨慎地称调查结果是初步的。在2003年非典(SARS)爆发期间，中国当局和科学家感到尴尬的是过早地报道了衣原体是罪魁祸首，后来证明是一种新的冠状病毒。
杜克-新加坡国立大学医学院新兴疾病专家Wang Linfa说：“我理解为什么政治家和科学家在宣布这种新型病毒时必须格外谨慎。确定这种联系的关键步骤是在实验动物身上重现这些症状，但这可能需要几周或几个月的时间。”
Wang Linfa说，武汉爆发的疫情和SARS之间的相似之处很有趣。这两起病例都出现在冬季，最初的病例与接触活禽市场出售的动物有关。(在非典疫情中，中间宿主被证明是市场上出售的果子狸。)
但也有很大的不同。事实证明，SARS相对容易在人群中传播，在被控制之前，它在37个国家/地区造成774人死亡。而武汉市的肺炎病例比SARS轻得多，并且似乎没有人与人之间的传播，尽管有些研究人员并不十分确定。
现在与2003年的另一个关键区别是，中国的科学技术迅速发展。中国现在的实验室能力、临床能力、疫情爆发控制能力现在都提高了几个数量级。此次武汉不明原因肺炎事件，中国与外界的沟通上做的比非典期间更好，但也并不完美。
科学家推测武汉的病人是被市场上出售的动物感染的。香港大学病毒学家Malik Peiris说：“查明确切的物种是关键。可能还有其他市场也正在传播类似的病毒，因此对这些市场进行检测以预防类似疫情的爆发是很重要的。
圣犹达儿童研究医院的流感研究专家Robert Webster说：“这种新的疾病再次表明，不应该再允许活体动物进入市场，它们很容易携带冠状病毒。如果不断地让活体动物与人类接触，这种病毒传播将时有发生。到目前为止，我们很幸运，并没有广泛的人与人之间的传播。”
但科学家们说，无论在市场上传播病毒的是什么动物，都可能是从其他地方的自然宿主那里感染的。Wang Linfa 说：“如果要打赌，我敢赌它是从蝙蝠那里来的。”2003年在中国爆发的我SARS病毒，最终追溯到云南的中华菊头蝠。2012年出现的导致中东呼吸综合征(MERS)的冠状病毒也可以追溯到野生蝙蝠。蝙蝠携带了如此多的冠状病毒，而且变异得非常快。
泰国曼谷机场开始从武汉过来的乘客是否发烧
在香港，最近几周去武汉旅行的48人中，有人出现了发烧，呼吸道感染或肺炎的症状。新加坡和韩国也隔离了来自武汉的患病旅客。到目前为止，这些人中尚未发现有人被感染疑似病毒。
原文链接：
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/01/scientists-urge-china-quickly-share-data-virus-linked-pneumonia-outbreak
他妈的，看了报道，水太深了。
最实锤的爆料，就是国务院两个副国务卿发memo对喷，一个压制手下调查，一个偷偷组panel调查。
然后还有国家实验室的提出溯源质疑，被DOE压下去，国务院去找作者DOE不让见。
might 发表于 2021-06-07 16:26
这是什么地方的报道啊？
其实到现在，技术层面的讨论已经没有什么突破性意义了
真凭实据已经湮灭殆尽
多数人也已经做出了判断设定了立场
是时候讨论下一步怎么办了
Shang_Ri_La 发表于 2021-06-07 21:47
看到了这篇Bloomberg的文章。。。
[url]https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-04/if-covid-did-escape-from-a-wuhan-lab-brace-yourself[/url]
现在都要付费，不是 pay as you go, 而是 pay indefinitely. 你可否转一下作为闲谈一部分？
noshock 发表于 2021-06-07 21:57
Technology & Ideas
The world’s anger will be terrible to behold.
By Stephen L. Carter
June 4, 2021, 4:00 PM MDT
If Covid Did Escape From a Wuhan Lab, Brace Yourself
Ever since President Joe Biden ordered U.S. intelligence agencies to investigate reports that
the Covid-19 virus might have escaped from a laboratory in Wuhan, commentators have
argued over what difference it makes if the theory turns out to be right. Here’s why the
answer matters: The discovery that the virus had a human origin would give the coronavirus
saga what it’s lacked: a villain.
And that’s a problem.
If a virus that has killed nearly 600,000 people in the U.S. and close to 4 million around the
world turns out to have escaped from a laboratory in China, the formless fear that has
immobilized most of the world for the last year and a half, at last given a target, might
coalesce into fury.
And fury, when widely shared, is hard to control.
Don’t get me wrong. It’s important to know the truth, and some degree of anger might be
good for us. One of the many tragic features of the pandemic has been the way that efforts at
public dialogue about causes, remedies, and, yes, whether the virus itself might be human-made,
were for the most part stilted and lost, the angry murmurings of a people all but
immobilized by anxiety.
To be sure, we sought villains as best we could: The whole mess was Donald Trump’s fault,
the shutdowns were a power grab by blue elites, the real problem was bureaucratic
incompetence. But this was mostly the performance of pain without adequate information.
We can include in this category the pretense that scientists were certain that Covid-19 was not
of human origin — and that those who suggested otherwise were dangerous cranks. That
fantasy was exploded by the meticulous reporting of the veteran science writer Nicholas
Wade in an article published in May in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Wade’s persuasive
case that the novel coronavirus escaped containment at the Wuhan Institute of Virology —
which was conducting research on altering viruses so they would more easily jump from
animals to humans — has reopened a debate we should have been having all along. Biden’s
order is a consequence.
But here’s where one might worry. Research on risk perception shows that we tend to fear
human-made harms more than natural ones, even when the natural ones have greater
likelihood or severity. Some research suggests that human-made harms make us angrier too.
The distinction makes sense. It’s easy to hate, say, a terrorist group like ISIS. There’s no point
in hating an earthquake.
But anger generally doesn’t do us any favors. Some people think better when they’re angry;
most think worse. Moreover, there’s a well-known finding in social science that anger leads us
to be irrationally optimistic about our ability to solve a problem.
It may be, as Ross Douthat has suggested, that a confirmation that the Covid-19 virus escaped
from a Chinese laboratory would lead to a major propaganda advantage in the geopolitical
battle over hearts and minds. Such victories matter. But they’re not likely to satisfy the all-too-literal
American mind, which, when roused to anger, invariably seeks more concrete
satisfactions: invade this, regulate that, throw so-and-so in jail. Anger seeks catharsis, often in
the urge to “do something.” Lots of bad policy is driven that way.
The Sept. 11 experience offered a catharsis because the nation was able to strike back. On the
other hand, the intensity of national fear and anger created an atmosphere in which it was
difficult to engage in serious public debate about the merits of the invasions of Afghanistan
and Iraq.
What about regulation? Perhaps evidence that Covid-19 was of human manufacture would
bring about international consensus that all experiments on viruses that might jump to
humans should be carried out at a higher level of biohazard safety. As Wade points out,
however, the problem is often less what the rules demand than what researchers find
convenient. (It’s not as though deadly viruses have never escaped containment in the West.)
Besides, as the British astrophysicist Martin Rees reminds us in his 2003 book “Our Final
Hour,” rules are not universally followed. No matter how strictly we regulate the handling of
dangerous microbes, Rees writes, “the chances of effective enforcement, worldwide, are no
better than current enforcement of laws against illegal drugs.” Just a single rule-breaker, he
notes, “could trigger widespread disaster.”
Which is to say that even if the Covid-19 virus didn’t escape from an improperly contained lab,
sooner or later one will.
Which brings me to my final thought.
Biden’s order to the intelligence agencies was a good thing. But the 90-day deadline smacks of
political theater. The U.S. needed two decades to figure out what went wrong at Pearl Harbor.
We had trouble tracking Osama bin Laden to a compound he had reportedly occupied for five
years. That we will uncover the truth about the origin of the pandemic in three months seems
... unlikely.
If the Covid-19 virus does turn out to have escaped from a Wuhan laboratory, even by
accident, the world will erupt in fury. The pressure to “do something about it” — to find a way
to punish China for its negligence and its cover-up — will be intense. So here’s my modest
suggestion, should that unhappy situation arise: Whatever we decide to do, let’s take the time
to think things through, rather than acting out of unreasoning anger.
To contact the author of this story:
Stephen L. Carter at [email protected]
前疮粉都歇歇吧
没看到科学家为这种没有credit八卦杂志出来站台
没有什么严肃媒体报道转载
拜登刚给福奇背书
几个亢奋爆了大料的，看看美国上下反应，没有一丝涟漪。
几个疮轮刚倒地打滚，煞有介事大肆炒作总统选举作弊，
现在又上蹿下跳阴谋论。翻翻你们4个月前自己打脸的贴吧。
fitzroy 发表于 2021-06-08 07:18
继续把脑袋埋在沙子里吧
本来这话题应该是100%科学家领域，现在却是，名利场时装杂志，花街读者来信，一群前疮粉阴谋论者在拼命spin
fitzroy 发表于 2021-06-12 20:06
如果像你说的是阴谋论炒冷饭，怎么解释现在七国集团联合公报也正式呼吁溯源，而且特别点名中国呢？
本来这话题应该是100%科学家领域，现在却是，名利场时装杂志，花街读者来信，一群前疮粉阴谋论者在拼命spin
fitzroy 发表于 2021-06-12 20:06
你猜错了。我既不是轮子也不是疮粉。纯粹是在了解到那封《柳叶刀》上的科学家联署信其实是Peter Daszak背后协调的之后，感到有点愤怒了。