美国已经光速步入共产主义-第1页

lanoiry

0操作1 ^#

以下是引用MissSweety在2008-9-11 18:39:00的发言：
Lehman还大量招entry level呢，今年经济真是不好，比上半年还差，2月份时career service上面招intern的还收国际学生的现在full time反而要求要有身份，大的咨询公司full time招的人比intern还少，BCG甚至取消了on campus interview slot，wall street上这些公司，除了高盛和花旗还热闹其他都蔫了，accounting career service的人都说今年对国际学生是个招工噩梦。

as far as I heard. Most of the street firms and financial companies are having Hiring freeze now...even promotion freeze for senior officer.

lanoiry

0操作2 ^#

以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-11 21:12:00的发言：

不好意思啊，挖了个小坑就逃了。题目是夸张啦，但是我觉得政府管的也太多了点。图片点击可在新窗口打开查看

不过管也有道理的。大家说不会对老百姓有什么影响。。。LEH的counter party risk非常大的。他家如果倒了，和他家做生意的商业银行有的就也会到。会多米诺骨牌一样最后波及到老百姓的。而且那样的波及更可怕。纳税人的负担会更重。

而且不是Fed在bear之后又那个discount window么？LEH在里面放了很多securities,如果他倒了，fed手里的那些抵押根本不够还债的。fed自己就会有经济损失了。

不过我觉得里面潜在的问题就是conflict of interest.fuld在纽约fed里面是有职位的。

虽然市值现在也就三个多billion,但是怕的是它balance sheet上面的很多东西。没人知道买了这个是赔本还是亏本买卖。fed现在还没说给一个backing,但是如果没人买的话，fed back stop是肯定的。我觉得除了bofa,nomura这几家银行外，GS小有可能，另外也有可能会是PE公司甚至大的Money manager.因为LEH现在手里的东西需要一个很大的公司来承担和管理。$32bn的commercial mortgage whole loans around the world一般公司是管理不了的。我不觉得boa有这个能力。除非30cents on the dollar卖掉。

虽说LEH是我们的竞争对手，但是这个礼拜还是感觉很难受。100多年的老字号啊。就这么垮了。而且还是市场流言和CEO的面子啥的给挤垮的。图片点击可在新窗口打开查看

这种局面，没有人乐意看到。

有人还说下一个会是ML。希望他们不要重蹈覆辙。大家一定要挺住。图片点击可在新窗口打开查看

No one will touch Leh unless Gov has back-ups. Their B/S is a lot mess. Although, markets are more calm than the time Bear Stern collapse. Ultimately, the burden is shifted to the tax-payers. I'm pretty bear on ML too.

This recession is worse than 2001, steping into crisis for a year long while Fed's rate cut fail to compensate the banking woes. No bottoming in the near future.

lanoiry

0操作3 ^#

以下是引用LifeisBeautiful在2008-9-11 22:07:00的发言：

mm分析的有道理. Leh的股票AH的时候最高达到几乎80美元一股，今天竟然跌破4元一股... Wamu更是跌到不到2元一股... 要知道这些都是美国经济的大头.

Leh早在年初就已经不被看好了，垮台风声不断，但没想到来得那么快. mm说的关于ML的预言也是我所听说的，估计ML这次要挺过去可能会走向自我切割的这条路... 不过希望ML一定要挺住.

而且听说大选后经济可能会更差...

Sigh, shorted WAMU when it's in the 18s...covered when it's 14...Should be more patient as in only half year, it becomes $2. Short Bear Stern when they are in 20s, also covered too soon.

lanoiry

0操作4 ^#

以下是引用baileys在2008-9-11 22:51:00的发言：
楼上的妹妹，我插一句嘴（虽然我不是caffeine mm那样街上的工作的），bailout的具体方案没出来，可以肯定政府救的是F&F发行的bond.其他的，preferred stockholder, common shareholder,估计会被wipe out.

Preferred stockholder is not going to be wiped out. Common's are.

lanoiry

0操作5 ^#

以下是引用Summer_Blue在2008-9-12 10:44:00的发言：

我们的外汇资产又要缠和一下子哈，不知道是好事还是坏事呢，黑石的教训还没记住

Re. ...Instead of buying lehman, I think CIC should take this time to recuite as many street-talents as possible. Their investment strategy is .........sigh...

lanoiry

0操作6 ^#

以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-12 15:33:00的发言：

I truly don't believe that LEH deserved it.

I also feel sad for LEH. Mrkt is tough. I first thought they might survive by selling their cash machines - Later proved wrong. mrkt simply didn't buy it, share price is nose diving. I also felt hard for them b/c they are not the first nor the last. After bailout of Bear Sterns, FF, how many more "bandeid - bailout" can the gov afford. When JP bought BS, gov has agreed to absorb $29 bln potential losses and opend the discount window.

I feel like LEH might even be sold in less then $10 a share, which is not fun at all.

lanoiry

0操作7 ^#

以下是引用benbenq在2008-9-12 22:43:00的发言：

我本来想的比这个多的多，可能因为老听着街上怎么怎么然后一群人转专业的，造成的一种误解吧。如果１０多万的话，也没什么特别的。呵呵。

The number is correct for Entry-Level ONLY - <= 100K base + bonus. I would think that's a pretty decent number for ppl fresh out of school.

lanoiry

0操作8 ^#

Barclay, the only bidder stepped away from Lehman Transaction, possibly due to Gov's reluctant to provide support. If it is true, Lehman might be forced to liquidation. What a tragedy.

lanoiry

0操作9 ^#

以下是引用baileys在2008-9-14 15:11:00的发言：

在leh这个问题上，没人想承担责任（take the bad assets)。好像chinese development bank 是barclay的股东？

en..Barclay and BOA both only want the good part, while other banks are summoned by the Fed to pony up the bad asset to prevent them to be sold at fire-price - Who would love the deal? Not sure about Chinese Development Bank though.

lanoiry

0操作10 ^#

以下是引用Waterleaf在2008-9-14 18:00:00的发言：

哎，BOA已经买了ML，真是戏剧化啊！

不过还没有人买LEH, 时间不多了，也许真的只能申请破产了，可怜呀！

not yet ba..still in discussion. BOA was reported in interesting in ML for a long time - that's why they withdrawed bidding early this morning. Now came out to be true. They are in discussion of a merge..

lanoiry

0操作11 ^#

ok. sorry - Yes, BOA- ML deal is about finalized. $26 per share.

lanoiry

0操作12 ^#

以下是引用bisoubisou在2008-9-14 19:06:00的发言：

天哪，ml居然被boa买了，leh居然破产掉了。这个世界乱了套了，都是前几年的房子暴涨闹得...

and FF is only surviving b/c the $3 trillion gov bailout, and AIG is going to reconstruct, and BS has gone for 6 months, and WM is almost nothing...

lanoiry

0操作13 ^#

以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-14 19:46:00的发言：
i thought that the Fed wouldn't allow LEH to go bankrupt. I don't think many people expected it either. Will be a crazy day to unwind...
good for Ken Lewis. Finally there is hope to match JP.

saw a report early - Ken has been waiting to swallow ML for a long time. I agree with the commentary by deal Journal that Lehman is died of bid-ask spread rather than outside liquidity dry-out. Seller and buyers hold different views on Lehman, yes there is a price for Lehman ,but if it's a 10centf-for-dollar game, lehman would rather choose to bankrupt, slice itself up - this is the immutable self-interest mechanism.

lanoiry

0操作14 ^#

以下是引用seven3在2008-9-14 19:49:00的发言：

FED won't waste one more penny of taxpayer's money on these banks except F2. If they bail out everyone, they set up a very bad example for wall street. Next time the bubble would be even bigger... anyway, lessons learned. It seems that I should delay my homeownership. 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看

Yes, mounting moral hazard pressure has already hit the Fed, with Leh not the first nor the last. Ultimately, it's the US taxpayers refused to take on the bad assets.

lanoiry

0操作15 ^#

以下是引用sassygirl在2008-9-14 21:35:00的发言：
BTW, does anyone know what happens to Neuberger tomorrow? Will it be liquidated together with rest of Lehman or will there be a side deal first for the PE houses to take it over?

all parts of Lehman should be enter into an orderly bankruptcy except brokerage units, which will enter a Chapter 7 liquidation, which basically will return its selling value to shareholders. others will be sliced up and sold to PE, HF, other banks before they go to the markets.

lanoiry

0操作16 ^#

以下是引用greenflower在2008-9-14 22:12:00的发言：
BOA 等到这一轮危机过后是不是要成超级大牛了? 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看

They are commercial banks with relatively solid capital base. Now I can see it becoming the next giant if ken Lewis managed to integrate and digest ML well. after all, the overlapping sectors of the two is not that much.

lanoiry

0操作17 ^#

以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-14 22:03:00的发言：

Lehman is said to file a Chapter 11 bankruptcy. I guess that's what you are asking?

lanoiry

0操作18 ^#

以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-15 7:45:00的发言：

yes. originally they were talking about liquidation so I was quite confused. it turned out to be Chap 11.
I'm not a lawyer but I heard that there are different rules when it comes to broker/dealers' bankruptcies. wonder what difference that makes.

b/d goes for Chap 7, which hand the unit to a trustee, who sell the assets and return all the proceeds to customers.

Others go for orderly liquidation and repay the creditors for as much as possible.

lanoiry

0操作19 ^#

以下是引用boobii在2008-9-15 8:47:00的发言：

What will happen next to the shareholders? Wondering... 图片点击可在新窗口打开查看

nothing will happen except a memeorable day and a $0 stock.

lanoiry

0操作20 ^#

以下是引用zijun在2008-9-15 14:38:00的发言：

我看到的是LEh Holding filed a petition for Ch 11, 但是IB part filed for ch 7.

据我有限的知识，CH11和CH 7的区别很大，ch 7是liquidation, 债务是“all or nothing“的游戏。有non-dischargeable的债务，譬如back to 3 years的taxes. File了ch 7的公司最后基本就是“死掉了”为结局。

ch 11是restructure bankruptcy, 债务会spread out，会cut back。LEH会先file 一个repayment plan, 然后judg审核。如果同意了这个plan，公司会照常运营,还可以继续借债以确保ongoing operation(这个是和ch 7最大的区别，ch 7没什么继续运营一说）。ch 11的债务， follow the absolute priority rule (shareholder 啥都拿不到也是这个原因，因为debtholder先有权力拿回自己的债；然后是preferred shareholders,最后才是common shareholders。debtholder里面又分first lien, second lien，有无投票权等，反正异常复杂。）

如果ch 11 失败了，就go for ch 7. 历史上80％的ch 11都失败了。成功的只有20％， kmart就是一个成功的例子。但愿leh会成功；但是在这种经济形式下，个人觉得恐怕是凶多吉少。

it's the brokerage unit which goes for Chapter.7. The asset here essentially belongs to the customers, creditors do not have/shoud not have any claims on that. also, the brokerage unit is still operating for now, did I make this wrong?

you are right on Chapter 11, though Neuberger Berman is not included in the filing, which may continue to operate.

美国已经光速步入共产主义

提示信息

密码找回

没有帐号？立即注册