初婚年龄上升，育龄妇女人数锐减。为什么没有育龄妇女，天知地知你知我知。男比女多3237万，如果考虑男性寿命比女性寿命短，青年男性少说比女性多5000万。不是经常有男ID说中国女性地位高吗，怎么反倒向着100%纯男香火大国大踏步迈进呢。。。

小时候我小姨怀孕8个多月被拉去强制堕胎，一对双胞胎女孩，被打药，生出来还活了几个小时，超级心碎的故事，相信那个年代有很多

一会儿人多力量大要多生，一会儿只生一个好要堕胎；一会儿坚决清零不动摇，一会儿快速过峰为祖国🐑，纯属一bipolar 神经病

BabyfishA 发表于 2023-01-16 22:44

想到这些 我还是暂时待在美国吧 为了孩子

https://onwisconsin.uwalumni.com/features/great-fall-of-china/

Why Is the Uyghur Population Shrinking?

Yi FuxianJul 12, 2022

GREG BAKER/AFP via Getty Images

MADISON, WISCONSIN – After becoming the Communist Party of China’s chief of Xinjiang Province in 2016, Chen Quanguo oversaw a security crackdown that led to a drop in births so sharp that it shocked the world. Some observers accused China’s leadership of committing genocide against the province’s mostly Muslim Uyghur population through forced sterilization and abortion. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi dismissed the allegations as “fake news,” arguing that Xinjiang’s Uyghur population had grown steadily to 12.7 million in 2018, an increase of 25% from 2010 – and higher than the 14% increase in the province’s total population. 

But recently released 2020 census figures have delivered what amounts to a slap in the foreign ministry’s face. The data show that in 2020, Xinjiang’s Uyghur population had grown by only 16% since 2010, to 11.6 million, compared to a 19% increase in Xinjiang’s total population. Even more shocking, the Uyghur population aged 0-4 was only 36% the size of that aged 5-9. 

The only comparable antecedent to this plunge in births was in Shandong Province in the early 1990s, where some Party officials tried to launch a campaign to go “newborn-free in 100 days.” By 2000, the population of 5-9 year olds in Tai’an, a city in Shandong, was only 28% the size of the cohort aged 10-14. Back in 1980, when Chinese authorities were discussing the one-child policy, there was even a creepy proposal to have a “newborn-free year” every few years. 

To understand why Xinjiang’s births have plummeted, it helps to review the history of population control in the province. China implemented family planning nationwide in 1973 and imposed the one-child policy in 1980. But for ethnic minorities in Xinjiang, family planning came later. Starting in 1989, minority urban couples in Xinjiang were allowed two children. Rural couples were allowed two as well, and were less likely to be forced to have abortions and sterilizations. Those “lenient” policies, combined with lagging education, led to higher fertility rates among Uyghurs. For example, the national fertility rates in 1989, 2000, and 2010 were 2.3, 1.22, and 1.18 children per woman, respectively, and 4.31, 2.0, and 1.84 for Uyghur women. 

Chen’s predecessor, Zhang Chunxian, was keen on population control when he was CPC secretary of Hunan Province from 2005 to 2010. Arguing that “to grasp family planning is to grasp productivity,” he launched a campaign to strengthen family planning in Hunan in 2006. The campaign swept up my cousin-in-law, who was forced to abort her first child a few days before her due date because she had not applied for a birth permit in time. 

In 2010, Zhang was reassigned to Xinjiang, and Hunan’s new governor, Xu Shousheng, arrived with plans to launch another campaign to strengthen population control in the province. In January 2011, I posted an “Open Letter to the Secretary and Governor of Hunan on Family Planning” online, euphemistically criticizing Zhang and Xu. In response, the Hunan authorities invited me to lecture on the topic in Hunan, and Ilham Tohti, a Uyghur economist and award-winning human-rights defender, joined me in calling for an end to family planning for the Uyghurs. 

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Then, on July 31, 2014, Zhang published an essay in the CPC journal Seeking Truth, arguing that Xinjiang must“implement a family-planning policy that is equal for all ethnic groups” and must “lower and stabilize fertility at a moderate level.” I was so concerned that in March 2015, I published a peer-reviewed response in the journal Population and Society, entitled “The urgency of stopping population control in view of the low fertility rates of ethnic minorities.” 

In the event, Zhang did not strengthen family planning in Xinjiang. Births in the province remained stable during his tenure. But we now know that, under Chen’s rule, births plummeted from 389,695 in 2017 to 267,250 in 2018, and to 159,528 in 2021, implying three-quarters of a million fewer births in 2018-21. 

Since Chinese authorities have long been notorious for mandating abortion, sterilization, and intrauterine devices, it is natural to assume that the dramatic decline in births in Xinjiang reflects such measures. But matters are not so simple, because there were slightly fewer abortions and IUDs in Xinjiang in 2017-20 than in 2013-16; and though there were 70,000 more sterilizations, that figure is still an order of magnitude smaller than the drop in births. 

Given that couples in Xinjiang can legally have two or three children, it is unlikely that the authorities systematically forced abortions, ligations, and IUDs on women who had only one or two children. Why, then, was the Uyghur fertility rate in 2020 only one child per woman? Most likely, it is because Chen’s brutal crackdown both undermined Uyghur fertility habits (under the pretext of fighting Islamic extremism) and reduced the resources for parenting, through economic recession and rising unemployment. As rural Xinjiang suffered severe cultural repression and economic deprivation, the fertility rate in 2020 fell to an unusually low level compared to the province’s urban areas. 

Moreover, improved education has also contributed partly to the decline in births, by leading more women to delay marriage and childbearing. Chinese authorities have invested heavily to provide 15 years of free compulsory education in Xinjiang, compared with nine years nationwide. As a result, Xinjiang’s high-school gross enrollment rate increased from 69% in 2010 to 99% in 2020, while the nationwide rate rose from 83% to just 91%. Uyghurs have suffered from forced sterilization, of course. But it is this forced cultural shift that appears to have had more serious consequences for the birth rate. 

While the Chinese authorities have been very effective at lowering fertility rates, they have proved to be far less competent at boosting them. The recent “two-child” and “three-child” policies have both been abject failures. Looking ahead, every effort to encourage procreation in Xinjiang will fail if the region’s socioeconomic vitality continues to decline. 

This failure will cause China to lose its geopolitical advantage in Central Asia, where it is in a struggle for influence with Russia. China’s rulers have heaped praise on Chen, but they have yet to recognize that his security crackdown in Xinjiang sowed the seeds of severe long-term problems.

所以有人评论，“治大国如翻大饼”

sunnynight 发表于 2023-01-16 23:16

锅太小了掉灶台上？

我也是这样理解的，但我想了想我初中高中班里学习好的女的比男的多。这个最后会导致男的出来没工作，有时间回家带娃。

nehz 发表于 2023-01-16 23:55

那个层主说的是数学物理，你这个说明难度还是不够。你看看清华男生多还是女生多？MOP男生多还是女生多。

回复 13楼heartone的帖子

不可能 -- 北欧女性福利不可谓不好，女性地位不可谓不高，然而出生率极低，全靠移民甚至是难民撑着。现代工业化社会就是反生育的。

qiminxin 发表于 2023-01-16 23:11

现代人口相比30年前已经是大爆炸了，别看现在增幅减小，但是看看30年前才多少人，大吃一惊

还增长的话，世界大战也不远了

100年前，每当人口爆炸，中国马上就要农民起义，然后人口迅速减半

那个层主说的是数学物理，你这个说明难度还是不够。你看看清华男生多还是女生多？MOP男生多还是女生多。

HuaZhu 发表于 2023-01-17 00:40

好久没看过这么无知的言论了。你咋不说两百年前认字的都是男的，认字这个难度够了吧。

25号宇宙实验，人口陷井，恐怖

哎，土共就会搞简单粗暴的。

其实之前早就说过，增加高考数学物理难度， 增加职场女性福利（每月5天带薪例假，产假带薪2年），这样就可以提高生育率，降低失业率

heartone 发表于 2023-01-16 22:58

北欧职场女性福利够厉害吧，生育率还是不行啊，哦对是因为北欧没有高考，北欧人也没有中国人聪明行了吧。

大约5年前甚至更早开始，连北京都有小学关停了。要不怎么会放开原来的计划生育政策？

生育率早就不行了，当时人口虽然没有负增长，但是人口结构已经很不健康了。太多人口学家说中国是世界上唯一一个“未富先老”的国家。

点苍鹤云 发表于 2023-01-16 23:34

中共施行了那么多反自然，反人类的政策，是要付出代价的。哪有啥人定胜天，只是报应来的早晚的问题。

乱糟糟

“折腾人”这个一直是传统，并不是什么新玩意。

《商君书》驭民五术，如下：

1，愚民：统一思想。

2，弱民：国强民弱，治国之道，务在弱民。

3，疲民：为民寻事，疲于奔命，使民无瑕顾及他事。

4，辱民：一是无自尊自信；二是唆之相互检举揭发，终日生活于恐惧氛围中。

5，贫民：除了生活必须，剥夺余银余财（即通货膨胀或狂印钞票）；人穷志短。

五者若不灵，杀之。

你看看这五条，有咩有恍然的感觉。

CK 发表于 2023-01-16 22:54

恍然！

国内育龄女的比例肯定比大家想的还少很多很多。

我坐京沪高铁和支线 每次都全车走一遍 算人口比例。 18-38女每个车厢平均1.7个吧。黑压压都是中老男。这还是京沪间周边 女的聚集的。

https://twitter.com/freeAoloa/status/1615229913925300224?t=aihklL61236B9yp5aRiHKw&s=19

去年7月，上海泄露了10亿多的身份信息，有说法认为中国人口就是那十亿多

rjoso 发表于 2023-01-16 23:00

中国政府这次应该是把家底摸清楚了，各种码，各种核酸筛查，上到百岁老人，下到初生婴儿，都被纳入管理了。没有码的人寸步难行，连快递都买不到，估计把各种黑户，流浪人口都纳入管理了。

总人口数，应该从核酸报告上就能看出来了。至于是不是统计局说了实话，见仁见智。

这难道不是好事吗？一面人口下降，一面找不到工作，人口红利消失是造福子孙后代的好事

这难道不是一直努力的方向吗？

本来就是要人口下降的吧，迟早的。最好是8亿人口左右。

bigsnail 发表于 2023-01-16 22:48

人口下降和老龄化的过程，就只能苦一苦百姓了

这难道不是一直努力的方向吗？

linkinc 发表于 2023-01-17 08:01

真的假的？预言帝啊

张国荣是03年死的吧

新冠把一大波老人送走，是不是会减缓老龄化？

bigsnail 发表于 2023-01-16 23:36

我觉得上边就是这么想的，听以前同事说起谁谁家老人新冠死了，后面都要加一句每个月退休金就上万呢可惜了。