以下是引用greenflower在2008-9-11 20:33:00的发言：
这就是elitism,精英们总觉得自己比别人聪明,却不知道其实劳苦大众的眼睛是雪亮的,呵呵很多华人为什么不希望Obma当选？
0操作441 #
0操作442 #
以下是引用seven3在2008-9-11 20:29:00的发言：
I don't think your fact is quite true. And regardless that fact, why there are many more republican presidents than democrats presidents after WWII? People aren't stupid.
I don't think your fact is quite true. And regardless that fact, why there are many more republican presidents than democrats presidents after WWII? People aren't stupid.
people are not stupid, but most of them have short-memory.
其实这在学术界也是个myth，也有很多种解释。一种是culture overrides economy，不过这个我觉得不convincing，起码对于我来讲，什么gay marriage, anti-abortion都是added benefits，经济才是重头。还有一个我觉得有点道理，就是大部分的大选年如果是Republican执政，当年的经济还算不错，所以老百姓就忘了前几年的苦日子了，呵呵。当然，这次好像完全相反，所以美国人估计都要捧Obama的臭脚了。![[em55]](https://emojis.huaren.us/static/emojis/v1/yoci/em55.gif)
0操作443 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 20:26:00的发言：
The fact is, Democratic presidents have consistently higher economic growth and consistently lower unemployment than Republican presidents. If you add in a time lag, you get the same result. If you eliminate the best and worst presidents, you get the same result. If you take a look at other economic indicators, you get the same result. There's just no way around it: Democratic administrations are better for the economy than Republican administrations.
show me your model. Let me see where the adjustments are. Otherwise I don't believe it.
0操作444 #
以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-11 21:14:00的发言：
show me your model. Let me see where the adjustments are. Otherwise I don't believe it.
I already showed you hard data, it depends on you to believe it or not.
BTWI: this is meta-analysis
BTWII, your argument is rather weak to make here. Nothing personal.
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-9-11 21:17:35编辑过]
0操作445 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 21:10:00的发言：
people are not stupid, but most of them have short-memory.
其实这在学术界也是个myth，也有很多种解释。一种是culture overrides economy，
还是有可能的
不是说ohio得很多地发
不管选什么政治人物， 区议员，石议员。。。都是现问
他是不是christan 啥啥的![[em58]](https://emojis.huaren.us/static/emojis/v1/yoci/em58.gif)
0操作446 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 21:17:00的发言：
I already showed you hard data, it depends on you to believe it or not.
BTWI: this is meta-analysis
BTWII, your argument is rather weak to make here. Nothing personal.
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-9-11 21:17:35编辑过]
you showed me the result. you didn't show me the process or the model. am i correct?
0操作447 #
以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-11 21:23:00的发言：
you showed me the result. you didn't show me the process or the model. am i correct?
咖啡因mm，这个是meta-analysis, as I said many times. Pls do homework on what meta-analysis is.
0操作448 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 16:21:00的发言：
It is time series data, so accounts for economic cycles. Economic cycle presents for both parties, right?
And your statement of lagged effect is also counted (Clinton created tech & housing bubbles...)
okay, let me ask you in a diffent way. for instance, how was the housing bubble effect adjusted in the model? by how much and by what factors?
0操作449 #
............= =
又来了....
无论哪个上台，打仗，加税都逃不掉...............
0操作450 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 21:25:00的发言：
咖啡因mm，这个是meta-analysis, as I said many times. Pls do homework on what meta-analysis is.
thanks:)
wiki:
A weakness of the method is that sources of bias are not controlled by the method. A good meta-analysis of badly designed studies will still result in bad statistics. Robert Slavin has argued that only methodologically sound studies should be included in a meta-analysis, a practice he calls 'best evidence meta-analysis'. Other meta-analysts would include weaker studies, and add a study-level predictor variable that reflects the methodological quality of the studies to examine the effect of study quality on the effect size. Another weakness of the method is the heavy reliance on published studies, which may increase the effect as it is very hard to publish studies that show no significant results. This publication bias or "file-drawer effect" (where non-significant studies end up in the desk drawer instead of in the public domain) should be seriously considered when interpreting the outcomes of a meta-analysis. Because of the risk of publication bias, many meta-analyses now include a "failsafe N" statistic that calculates the number of studies with null results that would need to be added to the meta-analysis in order for an effect to no longer be reliable.
0操作451 #
以下是引用cccccc在2008-9-10 11:26:00的发言：
因为他是黑人，因为真的怀疑他的能力，还是因为别的什么？
要说能力，他能上那么好的大学，能取得今天的成绩，不仅仅是因为他一张会说的嘴吧。他是黑人，但不是每个黑人都那么恶劣吧。
我对政治并不感兴趣，其实奥巴马和麦肯我都不看好，搞经济的话，我还是比较信任希拉里，可惜她被拉下了。
我看别的帖子里有人说什么“nc的奥巴马支持者。“能用nc两字随便形容别人的人本身就好不到哪里去吧。
纯属无聊，纯属好奇有些人的心理，以上言语有冒犯到版上的democratics or republicans,请你们忍一忍，绕道走，再不满也不要在我的贴里留NC之类的字眼
我觉着吧，华人对黑人的种族歧视是根深蒂固的。所以反对奥巴马很大程度上是种族主义。
我不推崇奥巴马，即使我有票，投给民主党也不是因为同意他的看法。如果大家看看希拉里的传记就会知道她1993年的医疗改革为什么没有成功。她没有华盛顿的经验，不知道怎么妥协。政治说不妥协是不可能的。奥巴马现在的所作所为很和谱，走的是中间道路，是好事儿。
投给民主党很重要的原因是因为联邦大法庭。要是再来两个保守的大法官，这个国家就完蛋了。我们这些不信教的人在这里会很难过很难过。因为他是黑人，因为真的怀疑他的能力，还是因为别的什么？
要说能力，他能上那么好的大学，能取得今天的成绩，不仅仅是因为他一张会说的嘴吧。他是黑人，但不是每个黑人都那么恶劣吧。
我对政治并不感兴趣，其实奥巴马和麦肯我都不看好，搞经济的话，我还是比较信任希拉里，可惜她被拉下了。
我看别的帖子里有人说什么“nc的奥巴马支持者。“能用nc两字随便形容别人的人本身就好不到哪里去吧。
纯属无聊，纯属好奇有些人的心理，以上言语有冒犯到版上的democratics or republicans,请你们忍一忍，绕道走，再不满也不要在我的贴里留NC之类的字眼
0操作452 #
以下是引用vinobianco在2008-9-10 11:38:00的发言：
天哪，这年头还有人把名校当饭吃的。。。。
更不要说这黑皮是AA才进的名校。
呵呵，你是名校毕业的吧。
名校还是管用的，尤其在美国这种精英治国的系统里。天哪，这年头还有人把名校当饭吃的。。。。
更不要说这黑皮是AA才进的名校。
0操作453 #
以下是引用龙小猫在2008-9-10 11:38:00的发言：
首先对事不对人哈，民主党的移民政策俺不喜欢,很不喜欢，他们对非法移民太好了，严重伤害各位高学历合法移民的利益
那对非法移民怎么办呢？把他们都遣返了，还是把他们都杀了？
他们和我们一样都是人。伤害我们的利益，很大程度上是因为华人不团结，没有自己的政治力量。看看比我们人少的犹太人什么时候受过欺负？
我们不能上来就怨别人。他们也是人，也有争夺自己利益的权利。。。首先对事不对人哈，民主党的移民政策俺不喜欢,很不喜欢，他们对非法移民太好了，严重伤害各位高学历合法移民的利益
0操作454 #
以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-11 21:29:00的发言：
thanks:)
wiki:
A weakness of the method is that sources of bias are not controlled by the method. A good meta-analysis of badly designed studies will still result in bad statistics. Robert Slavin has argued that only methodologically sound studies should be included in a meta-analysis, a practice he calls 'best evidence meta-analysis'. Other meta-analysts would include weaker studies, and add a study-level predictor variable that reflects the methodological quality of the studies to examine the effect of study quality on the effect size. Another weakness of the method is the heavy reliance on published studies, which may increase the effect as it is very hard to publish studies that show no significant results. This publication bias or "file-drawer effect" (where non-significant studies end up in the desk drawer instead of in the public domain) should be seriously considered when interpreting the outcomes of a meta-analysis. Because of the risk of publication bias, many meta-analyses now include a "failsafe N" statistic that calculates the number of studies with null results that would need to be added to the meta-analysis in order for an effect to no longer be reliable.
everything has two folds. 这个世界上还没什么methodology or model是十全十美的，都有这样那样的weakness。但是对于这个purpose来说，meta-analysis is a sound methodology。
Now can you show me a meta-analysis study that favors Republican then?
[此贴子已经被作者于2008-9-11 21:44:04编辑过]
0操作455 #
以下是引用Chatterbox在2008-9-11 21:33:00的发言：
那对非法移民怎么办呢？把他们都遣返了，还是把他们都杀了？ 他们和我们一样都是人。伤害我们的利益，很大程度上是因为华人不团结，没有自己的政治力量。看看比我们人少的犹太人什么时候受过欺负？ 我们不能上来就怨别人。他们也是人，也有争夺自己利益的权利。。。
那对非法移民怎么办呢？把他们都遣返了，还是把他们都杀了？ 他们和我们一样都是人。伤害我们的利益，很大程度上是因为华人不团结，没有自己的政治力量。看看比我们人少的犹太人什么时候受过欺负？ 我们不能上来就怨别人。他们也是人，也有争夺自己利益的权利。。。
at least they can make legal immigration easier.
0操作456 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 21:37:00的发言：
everything has two folds. Can you show me a meta-analysis study that favors Republican then?
i truly believe that the analysis (the underlying studies, not meta-analysis itself) is flawed. GIGO - garbage in, garbage out.
0操作457 #
以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-11 21:27:00的发言：
okay, let me ask you in a diffent way. for instance, how was the housing bubble effect adjusted in the model? by how much and by what factors?
you are talking about one specific time period (i.e., Clinton administration). This study showed multiple time periods and averages. Plus, some of the studies already counted lag effect.
0操作458 #
以下是引用Caffeine在2008-9-11 21:40:00的发言：
i truly believe that the analysis (the underlying studies, not meta-analysis itself) is flawed. GIGO - garbage in, garbage out.
alright then, show me something that is not garbage in your term![[em79]](https://emojis.huaren.us/static/emojis/v1/yoci/em79.gif)
0操作459 #
I simply don't think that its a fair comparison, my friend.
0操作460 #
以下是引用yuanyuanlu在2008-9-11 21:45:00的发言：
alright then, show me something that is not garbage in your term
-
还是不要争了。我觉得这些东西有data mining的重大嫌疑，意义有限。因为决定经济增长，股市表现的因素太多了，无法一一控制或排除。不是有NFL球队赢超级杯股市表现就比AFL球队婴更好的说法吗？
