Polymarket’s presidential predictions have a mixed but promising record. Blockchain-based prediction markets like Polymarket tend to aggregate real-time data from participants who have a financial stake in the outcome, which can often make them more accurate than traditional polls. For example, during the 2020 U.S. election, Polymarket reflected a higher probability of a Biden victory, which aligned with the actual result. The platform’s decentralization, transparency, and global participation contribute to its reliability. Unlike traditional betting systems, Polymarket offers real-time insights by tracking crowd sentiment, which can adjust faster than polls when new information arises. However, there have been concerns about manipulation, especially when large sums of money from a few individuals heavily influence the odds. While Polymarket predictions often outperform traditional polling, they are not immune to market distortions, particularly with politically sensitive events. Therefore, while it provides valuable insights, its accuracy isn’t guaranteed and should be considered alongside other forecasting tools  .

喜提Chinese Virus 2024!